Quarterly Newsletter 2026 Q3

Two hundred and fifty years ago, 13 colonies made the brave declaration to become independent of England.  This was the beginning of the most successful and powerful nation in the history of mankind.  Innovation and improved standard of living have been astounding.  We have ended slavery, won two world wars and invented unbelievable technology.  The promise of a bright future and continued prosperity is exciting to dream about.  Navigate Private Wealth is dedicated to helping our clients meet their life goals through disciplined, prudent investing strategies.

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2026 2nd Quarter Review

The second quarter of 2026 could be described as the comeback quarter, which supports our optimism for 2026.  Since the first of the second quarter, the stock market has climbed back to new highs.  

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The recovery was largely due to improvements in oil supply.  While the conflict with Iran is ongoing, there has been improvement in the Strait of Hormuz as we predicted last quarter.  Another improvement in the economy is due to companies using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to find more efficient ways to produce products and services.  The best news is that companies have not replaced employees with AI. They have used AI to simply become more productive.  This trend is very encouraging for the rest of 2026.

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S&P 500 Quarter 2         S&P 500 Year to Date

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2026 3rd Quarter Preview

The third quarter could see a pause in stock prices due to an overcorrection in the second quarter.  We would not be surprised to see a choppy market over the next month or two as the market determines the appropriate price for companies.  

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Oil prices could also affect the market.  At this point, it appears that the administration is willing to pursue total defeat of the Iranian Republican Guard.  This could mean more destruction of Iranian infrastructure and more oil supply challenges.

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Bonds

We started the year with optimism that the interest rates would decrease in the second half of the year due to a slowing economy.  However, our outlook has changed due to higher than expected economic strength.  This means that interest rates are likely to stay the same or even (dare we say) increase slightly.

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The new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh plans to be more-tight lipped about projecting interest rates.  This is a departure from the past several Chairmen.  He plans to allow the credit markets to develop though market forces.  He will continue to focus on policies to drive down inflation to the same target rate of 2.00%.  He also stated that will keep the Federal Reserve politically independent.

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US Stocks

As stated earlier, we may see some short-term volatility, which is normal in a rapid recovery.  That said, AI use and investment should continue to improve, demand appears to be relatively strong and capital investment is improving.  We remain optimistic for the rest of 2026.

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Another good sign for the stock market is more breadth in the market.  This means we are seeing investment in more than just technology such as dividend paying companies.

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International

International stocks were disappointing in the second quarter.  We stated in our last letter that we were more optimistic on international stocks than we have been in several years, but not going to get very aggressive at this point.  We have the same view this quarter.  A small amount of international stocks in the more aggressive models remains appropriate in our view.

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Did You Know?

The World Cup Soccer (football) tournament has been hosted in North America over the past month.  This is second time the United States has hosted it and it is the largest sporting event in the world with over a billion viewers.  The World Cup is held every four years and is hosted in different countries. The first tournament was held in 1930 in Uruguay. The field of teams increased to 48 countries this year.  

The trophy is made of pure 18-karat gold and remains in FIFA headquarters while a gold-plated replica is given to the winning country.  

The word Soccer originated in England as a nickname for ‘associated football’.  This came after American Football was established, which is why we still call it soccer.

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Have you reviewed your retirement strategy this year? We’re here to help.

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